They dissected the prospective banking landscape for the year amid increasing global economic and geopolitical uncertainties, technological disruptions and displacements, and the pivot towards climate change and sustainable development goals. This RadioFinance session was held on 18 January.

Global and regional economic growth prospects
Global economic growth in 2024 is expected to continue to face significant headwinds and the drag of higher interest rates in the fight against inflation. The International Monetary Fund forecasts a third consecutive year of global slowdown to 2.9% in 2024, with a soft landing in major economies with inflation pressures and interest rates anticipated to ease in the second half of the year.

Selena Ling from OCBC highlighted the resilience of the banking sector across economic cycles, commenting that major distress in large banks was notably absent during the pandemic. She offered insights on potential geopolitical fallout, especially relating to the Taiwan election, suggesting that such events often do not lead to immediate drastic changes and are not in the long-term strategic interest of stakeholders.

Louis Kuijs from S&P Global Ratings provided insights on the Asia Pacific banking sector’s preparedness for potential policy shifts and market conditions. He addressed the likely impact from the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy shifts and abandonment of yield-curve control. He highlighted the importance of understanding the central bank’s objectives, particularly its focus on achieving sustainable inflation and wage growth. Kuijs also discussed the importance of focusing on the broader implications of any policy changes, especially the impact on fiscal sustainability and corporate debt levels despite the short-term movements in the financial markets.

Alicia García-Herrero from Natixis commented on the geopolitical decoupling between China and the United States and the West in general, and the former’s reduced contribution to global growth. She posited that China may no longer be the major contributor to global economic growth and development as it had been in the past decade. She suggested a shift in the economic landscape of China, moving from a period of inflation to a phase where disinflation, and potentially deflation, become more prominent concerns. This change is significant given China’s substantial role in the global economy. She highlighted the need for banks to be agile during such geopolitical and economic shifts.

Roberta Gatti from the World Bank discussed the economic growth prospects in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), noting that despite poorer growth in 2022 and 2023, the region might fare relatively better in 2024. She noted that the slowdown in China’s economic growth and a potential deflation of its economy will have far-reaching consequences on emerging economies, including those in MENA, and stressed the need for diversification and restructuring in the oil and commodity-dependent economies

Harnessing technology for innovation, efficiency and growth
Ling emphasised the role of artificial intelligence (AI) and technology in enhancing banking services. Together with Garcia-Herrero, she stressed the importance of balancing technological innovation with ethical and regulatory considerations.

Kuijs cautioned against the overreliance on powerful emerging technologies like AI, and especially applications that replace human reasoning and decision-making.

Transition through climate change and sustainable finance
Sustainable finance and the banking sector’s role in combating climate change were pivotal themes. Ling discussed the emerging opportunities in green technologies and renewable energy financing, emphasising the growing consumer demand for sustainable banking products.

Gatti concurred, saying that the MENA region would need to adapt to climate change and restructure their economies for a sustainable future.

Kuijs warned about the commercial implications of climate change and environmental, social and governance (ESG) transition, and that the banking industry must take a “hard-nosed” approach, including managing the risk of stranded assets.

García-Herrero discussed the broader implications of geopolitical changes on sustainable finance, emphasising the ongoing adjustments in global economic contributions, particularly from China, and its implications for sustainable finance.

The session highlighted that while economic, technological, and environmental challenges loom large in 2024, they also present significant opportunities for growth and transformation in the global banking sector. The panellists agreed on the importance of agility, innovation, and a strategic approach to sustainable finance in navigating these complex times.

• Effectively managing economic uncertainties and heightened complexity to ensure long-term resilience.
• Harnessing technology for financial innovation and disruption.
• Addressing climate change and the transition to a low-carbon economy: Risks and opportunities.
• Promoting responsible lending practices through collaboration for a broader economic and societal benefit.

Invited guests include:

• Joanna Chua, Chief Asia Economist, Citigroup
• Shuang Ding, MD, Chief Economist, Greater China and North Asia, Standard Chartered Bank
• Helen Qiao, Chief Greater.China Economist; Head of Asia Economic Research; Bank of America
• Frederic Neumann, Chief Asia Economist, HSBC
• Taimur Baig, MD, Chief Economist, DBS
• Bert Hofman, Director at East Asian Institute, National University Singapore
• Huw Pill, Chief Economist, Bank of England
• Weijun (Larry) Hu, Chief China Economist, Managing Director at Macquarie
• Selena Ling, Chief Economist, OCBC
• David Mann, Chief Economist – Asia, Mastercard Economics Institute
• Andrew Goodwin, Chief UK Economist, Oxford Economics
• Sanjay Mathur, Chief Economist, Southeast Asia and India, ANZ
• Alan Oster, Chief Economist, NAB

Guests include:

Roberta Gatti

Chief Economist, Middle East, and North Africa
World Bank

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Alicia García Herrero

Chief Economist
Asia Pacific
Natixis

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Selena Ling

Chief Economist & Global Head, Global Markets Research & Strategy
OCBC

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Louis Kuijs

APAC Chief Economist
S&P Global Ratings

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Louis Kuijs

APAC Chief Economist
S&P Global Ratings

Louis Kuijs, APAC Chief Economist at S&P Global Ratings, skillfully navigates the intricacies of the Asia Pacific macro landscape. In his pivotal role, he shapes the firm's understanding of regional economic trends and their impact on credit markets. With a diverse background across sectors, Kuijs held senior positions at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, Royal Bank of Scotland, and Oxford Economics. Notably, he led the World Bank's China Quarterly Update and researched China's long-term growth and structural changes. A sought-after commentator, Kuijs regularly shares insights on China and Asia with global audiences through international media, simplifying the region's economic dynamics. Driven by intellectual curiosity and a profound appreciation for Asia's potential, Kuijs leads in unraveling the economic intricacies of the region.

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Alicia García Herrero

Chief Economist, Asia Pacific
Natixis

Alicia García Herrero, Chief Economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis in Hong Kong, is also an independent Board Member at AGEAS and holds positions at BRUEGEL, the East Asian Institute, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. She advises the Spanish government and serves on various boards, including CAPRI, MERICS, and the Focused Ultrasound Foundation. With a PhD from George Washington University, Alicia has held key roles at BBVA, BIS, Bank of Spain, ECB, Banco Santander, and the IMF. Recognized for her thought leadership, she was listed in LinkedIn's TOP Voices in Economy and Finance in 2017 and ranked #6 Top Social Media leader by Refinitiv in 2020. Alicia actively contributes to international media and social platforms.

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Roberta Gatti

Chief Economist, Middle East, and North Africa
World Bank

Roberta Gatti is the Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa at the World Bank, overseeing the region's analytical agenda and publications. As the founder of the MENA Central Banks Regional Research Network, she has played a pivotal role in shaping economic policies. With a background in development research, her influential work covers topics such as growth, corruption, gender equity, and labor markets, published in leading journals. Roberta's leadership includes managing large teams, heading units in social protection, jobs, and human development economics. A renowned author, she has led flagship reports and contributed to academia, teaching at institutions like Georgetown and Johns Hopkins. Holding a Ph.D. from Harvard University, Roberta is dedicated to advancing development economics through her research, teaching, and policy contributions.

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Selena Ling

Chief Economist & Global Head, Global Markets Research & Strategy
OCBC

Selena Ling, Chief Economist & Global Head of Global Markets Research & Strategy at OCBC, deftly leads a team responsible for macroeconomic insights, forecasts, and trading recommendations. In her pivotal role, she has elevated OCBC's research capabilities, gaining high regard from clients and top rankings in industry surveys. As a member of the OCBC Wealth Panel for Singapore and Malaysia, she contributes strategic insights, while also holding council membership with the Economic Society of Singapore. Selena is influential in the Institute of Valuers and Appraisers (IVAS), Singapore, and serves on the Advisory Board of the College of Humanities, Arts and Social Sciences at Nanyang Technological University, along with the Board of Governors at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS). Recognized for her expertise, she received the IBF Fellow Award in Financial Markets in 2017. With prior roles in government entities, including the Ministry of Finance (MOF) and the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI), Selena Ling stands as a respected figure, simplifying the global economic landscape for diverse audiences.

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Andreas Spanner

Chief Architect Australia and New Zealand, Red Hat

Andreas Spanner is leading the cloud strategy and transformation of Red Hat across Australia and New Zealand. His hands-on experience in startups and large-scale enterprise transformation programmes has given him a solid understanding of business drivers and value creation. Spanner has worked on a wide range of initiatives across different industries in Europe, North America and Asia Pacific, including full-scale enterprise resource planning (ERP) migrations, human resource (HR), finance and accounting, manufacturing, supply chain logistics transformations and scalable core banking strategies to support regional business growth strategies. Since joining Red Hat in 2015, he helped customers build the necessary capabilities and make the best-fit technology, methodology and architecture choices to be a successful digital competitor. He got his first Commodore 64 when he was 12 years old and started to work as a software developer in 1996 with Krauss-Maffei in Munich building full mission simulators.

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Foo Boon Ping

President and Managing Editor, The Asian Banker

Foo Boon Ping manages The Asian Banker’s publishing and research business in Asia Pacific, the Middle East and Africa. He regularly engages the financial services community on transformational issues shaping the industry; speaking at and chairing many of the Asian Banker’s as well as partners’ events. He has more than 25 years' experience in strategic brand management, corporate & marketing communication and research & consulting, covering: retail, corporate and transaction banking, financial markets, risk management, compliance and financial technology. He had previously served in senior management positions at UOB and DBS Bank. He was also formerly a senior consulting manager at Ernst and Young and started his career as a financial journalist.

Session host:

Foo Boon Ping

President and
Managing Editor,
The Asian Banker

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